Mengenal False Breakout

False break adalah sinyal break (tertembusnya level support atau resistance) yang salah, atau disebut juga dengan sinyal break palsu. Trader membuka posisi buy atau sell saat harga telah menembus level support atau resistance. Namun, ternyata arah pergerakan harga berbalik dan tidak sesuai dengan prediksi trader sebelumnya, sehingga stop loss trader kena. Tentunya, trader tidak akan masuk jika sudah mengetahui sinyal break bakal terjadi. Meski demikian, trader tidak bisa menghindari false break saat sudah membuka posisi trading.

False break bisa terjadi kapan saja. Hal tersebut akibat dari respon trader terhadap kondisi pasar hingga membuka posisi buy pada level harga tertinggi dan sell pada level harga paling rendah. False break bisa dianggap sebagai tipu muslihat pasar. Pasar menguji suatu level support atau resistance yang telah ditembus, sebelum akhirnya berbalik arah. Bisa juga, gerak harga pasar tidak berlanjut di luar level yang telah diuji, tetapi kembali ke area semula dan membiarkan keadaan itu sebagai sinyal palsu atau false break. Keadaan ini sering terjadi pada pasar normal, baik ketika pasar sedang tenang ataupun saat terjadi rilis berita berita fundamental penting.

Cara Trading Pola False Breakout

False breakout terjadi di semua kondisi pasar; tren, konsolidasi, melawan tren, tapi mungkin cara terbaik untuk trading adalah sejalan dengan tren grafik harian yang dominan.

Saat trader melihat false break yang melawan tren dominan seperti ini, biasanya itu merupakan sinyal yang sangat bagus bahwa tren siap untuk dilanjutkan. Trader amatir suka mencoba dan memilih bagian bawah dalam tren turun atau bagian atas tren naik, dan ini dapat menyebabkan false break terhadap tren. Pada setiap false break, kemungkinan pedagang amatir mengira tren turun telah berakhir dan mereka mulai membeli, begitu pembelian ini dimulai, para trader profesional kembali masuk dan mengambil keuntungan dari kekuatan sementara dalam tren turun dan masuk, dan kemudian tren turun kembali, menghabiskan semua trader amatir yang mencoba memilih bagian bawah.



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